The Fan's Perspective

Wow, can you believe that another NFL regular season is in the books?

(And by another I mean possibly our second to last for a while considering the inevitable lockout in 2011. Just thinking about at least one year without professional football leads to me fainting like a ’60′s chick at a Beatles concert. That would be the football equivalent of the dark ages. Only ten thousand times worse and no, I’m not exaggerating.)

It all happened so fast. No stretch of 17 weeks passes as quickly as the NFL regular season while still providing drama, action and stupidity galore. There was a lot to see:

We saw teams go 0-6 and nearly make the playoffs nonetheless.

Every Titans fan isn’t sure if to smile or to frown right now. Go with the smile, Tennesseeians, your team almost did the impossible, provided for a late feel good story and you’re set up nicely for next year. Just go with the smile and don’t think about the fact that you guys would’ve absolutely wreaked havoc in the playoffs, especially going up against Cincy. Whoops, did I just say that out loud!?

We saw teams go 6-0 and NOT make the playoffs, which in my opinion is almost a harder feat than what Tennessee did.

You’re telling me you can’t get four more wins in 11 weeks!? Really!? The Broncos went 6-o then 0-4 then 2-0 and then 0-4 again. As if they couldn’t make up their minds if they wanted to be in the playoffs or not. But ultimately they settled on the latter. They even fooled me, here is what I wrote in October after they beat the Pats: If you let a good team like the Broncos hang around for too long, they will come back and beat you. (Yes, they definitely hung around for too long and after that they folded like a shirt from Banana Republic.) … I wasn’t all that mad about the loss, because after all the Broncos are a pretty darn good team,… (Uhm, yeah, not really. Of their 8 losses they lost 6 by double digits. Then again they lost to juggernauts and perennial contenders like Washington, Oakland and Kansas City.)

We saw a 14-0 Colts team pack it in against a mediocre Jets unit in an attempt to rest their starters for the playoffs.

Look I HATE the Colts. I really do. I hate them about as much as I hate anything in the world and therefore I also detest their fans, but still even they don’t deserve this. This was the ultimate slap in the collective face of the fans. I know everyone has given their opinion on this “move” by the Colts powers that be already, but let me just say this: Here you are at 14-0. You can make history by going 16-0 and then possibly make the fairy tale perfect by winning the Superbowl. That is the greatest gift a sports organization can make its fans. Fans that go to the stadium and cheer their team on even if they suck. Fans that purchase merchandising and collectibles even in times of economic downturn. Fans that always, always, always stick with their team and stick up for every dumb thing the team or the organization does. Now you want to tell me you can’t try for the perfect season and give something back to them. That is just disgraceful. I know the resting the starters argument all to well, but here is my counter: a) If you want to rest your starters than do it systematically. What sense does it make to play them in the first half and take them out in the second!? Do NFL players hit less hard in the first half!? Did I miss something here!? A player can get injured at every effing point in the game or even in practice. Who knows maybe the Colts didn’t even practice the last two weeks. So that part of the argument is just plain ludicrous. b) If we have learned anything over the course of the last couple of years it is that teams who get hot at the end of the season go the farthest come playoff time. Just look at the Cardinals last year or the Giants the year before. They certainly didn’t rest their starters. One went on to win the Superbowl and the other made its first appearance in franchise history and nearly won. So don’t try and tell me that resting starters is a good thing when you have the chance of doing something truly special instead.

We saw the resurgence of football in New Orleans (and possibly the death of it as well) take place.

The Saints started off like shot out of a cannon. They mowed over people. They demolished them. They went Elin Nordegren on opponents and beat them up like they were a car window. They wripped their enemies’ hearts out and crushed them mercilessly. They did everything a Superbowl contender has to do. They could come from behind. They could extend a lead. They knew who to step on teams’ throats. They did it all.

Except here is the problem: They did it too early. I know. I know I am proclaiming them dead before calling the doctor, but this goes back to the hot – teams – at – the – end – of – the – season – succeed – in – the – playoffs – theory (which by the way is more like a rule than a mere theory).

Here are the facts:

-They were manhandled by Dallas, a notoriously bad team in December.

-The following week they made history by being the first 13-1 team to lose to an 2-12 team ever.

(That game led to one of my favorite moments of the whole season when Saints owner Tom Benson prematurely celebrated and gave us one of the all-time “Wait, what happened?”- faces. Here it is if you haven’t seen it yet. By the way when you watch the clip listen to Kenny Albert closely. After Hartley misses it he mentions that Raheem Morris didn’t take a timeout to freeze the kicker as if that was a profoundly astounding move. It’s like he is almost as much in disbelief that the kicker missed a chip shot as he is about a coach NOT freezing the kicker. Can we burry this freezing the kicker myth once and for all. It doesn’t make any effing difference. NONE, YOU HEAR ME, KENNY, N-O-N-E, NONE!!! Glad we settled that.)

-Then they lost to division rival Carolina.

Now granted in that last game they didn’t have anything to play for anymore, but in those other two… they absolutely did!

The Saints were openly trying for 16-0 (which made me respect them at least 10 % more) against Dallas and they were playing for the Nr.1 seed against Tampa Bay, which they ended up getting anyway, because Minny couldn’t beat a turribly (copyright by Chalres Barkley) Bears team.

Anyway, my point is that this Saints team could very well be one and done. And if any of you fellow gamblers out there are reading this then listen up carefully: Save some money to bet against the Sainst in round 2. Do it now and thank me later.

We saw me going back and fourth on the Pats from week to week.

First I was Jim Mora. Playoffs!?!? Don’t talk about playoffs!!! You kiddin’ me!!! Playoffs!?!?! I just hope we can win a game.

Then I was Rex Ryan. Cocky with a lot of swagger.

Then I was Josh McDaniels. Cursing at the players and ranting like I’ve never ranted before.

And then I was back to being Rex Ryan. (Well, except for the weight part of course.)

Now that the Welker injury happened I am back to Jim Mora mode, but more on that in the playoff preview .

(I know what you’re thinking.Whaaaat a playoff preview too!?!? You’re damn right a playoff preview too.  After all a  mega mammoth mashup doesn’t end at 1283 words.)

Anyway you look at it this season was certainly worth seeing. We saw a lot. We saw  familiar stuff (like Detroit sucking) and new stuff (like Matt Schaub staying healthy for a whole season). We saw major upsets (Props to Oakland, for making every gamblers life miserable by inexplicably beating superior teams week after week after week. How the hell are we supposed to do three-team-teasers if we can’t bet against Oakland anymore!?!? Do your job Tom Cable and let the Raiders be predictably bad again next season! That’s all I am asking.) and we saw major collapses. (You know how you are: Broncos, Giants, Texans and Steelers to name a few)

It was a one of a kind season that wouldn’t be complete without the first annual TFP regular season awards presented by Budweiser (Not really, but a man still can dream, right!?):

Regular season MVP: Philip Rivers.

Dammdammdammm. No Brees, no Favre, no Chris Johnson. It was a tough call, but ultimately it came down to this: If you replaced Rivers  with an average QB (somebody like Jason Campell for example) how far does his team go? The answer is simple: Nowhere.

They have a washed-up RB who has more forks sticking out than the last piece of meatloaf at a family dinner. Their defense is ok, but not great. And he only has two reliable targets, Vincent Jackson (I told you he will be great.) and Antonio Gates.

Philip Rivers is the reason why the Chargers have won 11 in a row and why they are a prime candidate for a Superbowl trip especially if you consider that they own the Colts like the Pats used to do (Man, I miss those times). Plus, he is undefeated playing in December, the most crucial and important month of the regular season.

And he is no statistical pushover either: He is first in yards per pass completion, only one of the most overlooked stats there is. He gives them big chunks of yards with every completed pass. He is third in passer rating and eight in passing yards. He is sixth in passing TDs and eight in passing yards per game. He threw 28 TDs and only 9 INTs.

Philip Rivers is my regular season MVP.

Now he probably won’t win the real thing, because people generally tend to go with bigger names (which further underlines how underrated Rivers is) à la Favre or Brees. Listen, that’s fine, anyone of them would make for a good MVP, but Rivers just is the MOST VALUABLE to his team out of all of them.

Runners-up:

Drew Brees – Great statistical achievments and all-around season, but ultimately his team would have won 10 games and sneaked into the playoffs with stingy, opportunistic defense, a solid running game, great coaching and Jason Campbell under center.

Brett Favre – The old man delivered one of his finest seasons and made me look like an idiot when he led the Vikes to a Nr. 2 seed (I still believe he will self-combust in the playoffs. I will hold on to that until he proves me wrong, which he won’t. I am confident. I think. Maybe. God, I hope I am right.). Two words why he isn’t the pick: Adrian Peterson.The Vikes would have made it to the playoffs with Jason Campbell replacing Favre.

Chris Johnson – Arguably the most electric and dynamic player of the last couple of years puts up a historically great season. Chris Johnson is the Tennessee Titans, but he got help too, namely from Vince Young who made a strong case for either breakout player of the year or comeback player (depending on the way you look at his absence in ’08). Plus they fell short of making the playoffs.

Honorable mentions:

Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Wes Welker (Just look at his stats and Brady’s numbers when Welker plays compared to when he doesn’t. I guarantee you you’ll be in disbelief Wade-Phillips-style.), Maurice Jones-Drew

Coach of the year: Sean Payton.

This one was a lot easier.

Payton did not only guide the Saints to the first Nr. 1 seed in franchise history, but he also is the mastermind and play caller behind the “Greatest Show On Turf 2.0″ (top-ranked offense with 510 scored points). He outcoached Belichick and made him look like a little schoolboy in the process and nobody, absolutely nobody, has been more creative calling offensive plays this year. And the defense didn’t do all that bad either.

Runner-up:

Norv Turner – First of all: What kind of world are we living in where Norv Turner nearly wins the TFP coach of the year award?? Who’s next??? Wade Phillips??? Brad Childress??? Andy Reid??? Norv has teared down the fence and paved the way for many once-thought-to-be-terrible coaches. Second of all: You really can’t argue against success and Norv was (gulp) great this year. He hid a secretly (well more or less secretly, actually I think the word is out that LT isn’t the same anymore) toasty (You know as in: He is toast.) and aging RB and made him look semi-decent (a bit of a reach, but what the heck) and gathered the troops after a slow start to charge past opponents and pick up eleven consecutive wins on the way. You came close, Norv. Sooo close.

Honorable mention:

Maybe Jim Caldwell, but who knows how much he is even involved in calling plays, plus that Jets debacle was unforgiveable (even if Bill Pollian gave the order). Other than that none. There was some baaaaaahhhd coaching going on this year.

Defensive player of the year: Darrelle Revis.

Is there even an argument against “Revis Island”? (great nickname by the way)

Because if there is I certainly don’t see it. Put it this way: If every fantasy player in the entire world is considering benching his best receiver when that receiver is facing the Jets I think it says a lot about how good the cornerback is.

Revis shuts people down. He is the definition of a shutdown corner. He is on receivers like white on rice. If you look up “to shadow” in the dictionary there is a picture of Revis and an alternate phrase: “to revis somebody”.

You get my point.

Also he is the winner of the “Nhamdi-Asomugha-(I-always-have-to-look-up-how-to-write-his-name)-award”.

So there you go Darell or is it Darrel!? Crap, what was it again!

Runners-up:

Elvis Dumervil – Led the league in sacks, but doesnt limit an offense the way Revis does.

Charles Woodson/Darren Sharper/Asante Samuel/Jairus Byrd – Led the league in INTs, but ultimately Revis had a greater impact on his team.

Honorable mention:

Patrick Willis (most tackles)

Breakout player of the year: tie Sidney Rice/ Miles Austin

This was too tough of a call (I know cop-out alarm.), but they are essential the same player. Two deep threats who benefit from two similar, gunslinging QBs. Both came out of nowhere and finished in the top five for receiving yards. (Austin third with 1320 and Rice fourth with only 8 fewer yards, which goes two show how close these two guys are.) And both stepped up for their respective franchises as reliable targets on two teams where good hands and secure options are hard to find. (Sorry, Roy E. Williams.)

Runner-up:

Matt Schaub – Just read what I wrote about him in my fantasy preview. And while you’re at it check out the rest of all the great calls I made. Not to pat myself on the back too much, but my fantasy football predictions this year are up there with Phelps winning eight gold medals in Beijing and Oscar Robertson averaging a triple-double for an entire season as some of the historically superb individual achievements in sports.

Alright that will do it for the awards, but here is a bonus one:

Most overhyped story at the beginning of the season: Michael Vick.

Again no contest. After months and months of speculation he finally lands on a team and everybody gets all excited and riled up about Philly’s wildcat formation and what not and ultimately he doesn’t end up mattering at all. Sure he ran in one, but other than that Vick’s comeback was rather unspectacular.

But what do you expect from a guy who was more concerned about not dropping the soap in the shower than playing football just a few months ago. Next year there’ll be a similar story (Plaxico Burress maybe) and the general public will get all giddy again. If that happens then do me a favor loyal reader and be like Public Enemy: Don’t believe the hype.

Now that we’re done with the awards it’s time to look at how my ODS formula faired in its first NFL season:

A number’s game

(If you’re not familar with the ODS formula then click here.)

Overall ODS record this season: 128-66

The ODS formula finished just beneath .500, which means I’ll have do some tweaking for next season.

It also means that for the playoffs I will go to old-school gut picks. But no need to fall into despair all you statiscians and sport nerds out there, because the ODS formula will do like Tiger Woods: Disappear for a few months and then come back strong next year. You wait!

And now on to the part of the column (I think at 2717 words and counting I am allowed to call it a column, right!?) everybody has been longing for so desperately:

The playoff preview

AFC

New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals

One of the three reamtches from week 17 and quite possibly the worst one of the first round matchups. On the on side you have Cincy who got rolled by New York in the teams’ week 17 meeting. They have no offensive fire power other than Cedric Benson. I mean none at all (The Bengals are the lowest ranked offense of all the playoff teams). Ochocinco is banged up and will be pitching a tent on Revis Island anyway. Laveranues Coles is a shell of a receiver. Andre Caldwell, while promising, isn’t exactly the scariest dude on the field. (Actually that’s not true just look at this picture. If he gives the Jets’ cornerbacks those crazy eyes he might just get open after all.) So to say Carson Palmer doesn’t have a great group of receivers to work with would be like saying “Avatar” was an expensive movie: a huge understatement.

Now, their running game is great no question, but you now what!? The Jets’ is better and by a wide margin. (The Jets are the top-ranked running team while the Bengals are just inside the top ten at Nr.9.)

The lopsidedness countines on the defensive side of the ball where the Nr.1 defense will wear green and white while the 6th ranked defensive unit while be sporting black zebra stripes on their helmets. I am gonna go out on a limb and say that an offense that has trouble scoring as it is encountering a defense that is relentless and comes after you every play isn’t the best of all matchups. (Sensing a theme here?)

The only questionmark on the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets is their rookie QB, Mark “Dirty” Sanchez (Sorry, I just couldn’t resist. Plus we were due for a porn joke.), the Sanchise, Pretty Boy, whatever the heck you want to call him. He’ll be on the road in a hostile environement and if the Jets fall behind signifcantly then Jets fans might as well start kissing the season goodbye. Like Palmer he doesn’t really have anything substantial to work with the only difference being that he is not a former Pro Bowler.

Let’s sum this baby up: We have two similar teams (strong running game, good defense, mediocre receivers), with the difference being that the Jets are a better run team and a better defensive team. The Bengals have an edge in the QB departement, but since both teams don’t have good receivers that’s basically a wash. Plus the Jets demolished the Bengals in week 17. Now I know the Bengals we’re not trying and stuff, but still they got beat badly, which only adds to the Jets’ swagger and feisty demeanor. It makes me nervous to go with a rookie QB on the road in cold weather, but I expect the Jets D to shut ‘em down.

(One last note: At least the Bengals can say they successfully ended the “Hard Knocks” curse. So there.)

Gut pick: Jets

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

Obviously this game lies near and dear to my heart and maybe I am too close after all (I’ve been so giddy and excited all week I might have to be hosed down come game time.), but let’s take a look at this goody:

The Pats won a close won back in week 4 when Mark Clayton dropped a crucial fourth down conversion near the Pats’ goalline that would have probably led to a Ravens TD and win. Ultimately the Ravens beat themselves by commiting some dumb mental errors (2 turnovers and the aforementioned drop to note the blatant ones) and penalties (a total of 9 whopping penalties for 85 yards). They lost the game more than the Pats won it, it’s just a fact.

Of course back in week 4 Brady was not up to game speed yet and the timimg was more off than Shaq’s free throws. But after a while he got his mojo back and up until the tragic Welker injury it sure seemed like the Pats were getting hot at the right time and would be a tough out. That freak inujury though sure put them in a bad spot. Mighty Mouse we’ll be replaced by Mini-Welker aka. Julian Edelmann and he’ll probably do an admirable job, but he just is no Wes Welker. The Ravens now have one receiver less to double-team and can throw the kitchen sink at Brady pretty much whenever they feel like it. Brady who is playing hurt as it is (3 broken ribs and a finger injury) will have to get rid of the ball quickly, a ball that normally Welker would receive only he’s not there, which means Edelmann and Watson will see a bunch of work come Sunday. Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t feel comfortable putting the game into the hands of a rookie and an average tight end.

Then again the Ravens are not all rainbows and sugar either. Their cornerback play is just god-awful which will be a problem against a pyhsical freak of nature like Moss. Their run defense is still above-average, but the Pats rarely run the ball anyway (even though they should since Morris, Taylor and even Maroney have done a decent job running the ball lately). Flacco looks recognizably worse than last year and the only reliable receiver they have is Derrick Mason who is so old he should be reading the newspaper in a rockingchair on a porch by now.  RB Ray Rice would scare me except for the fact that the Pats run defense has been pretty solid throughout the season.

It sure is a tough call and my feelings on this game have flipped so many times throughout this week that my head started to hurt, but here is the thing: New England’s weaknesses and strengths match up well against the Ravens. Baltimore is bad at defending the pass. The Pats are good at throwing the ball and will do so often (sometimes too often). The Ravens have a stellar run defense, but as I mentioned earlier the Pats hardly ever run it anyway. They are a pass first team. The way to exploit the Pats is through the air, because they can’t rush the passer to save their life, but the Ravens had trouble moving the ball through the air this year. You see where I am going with this?

No Welker. A banged up Brady. A young and inexperienced defense. A team that hasn’t had a quality win all year.

And nonetheless I still have to go with the Patriots, despite all the red flags. (Maybe I can’t be rational about them after all and if they get crushed by the Ravens on Sunday it would serve me right for getting sucked in again.)

(One more thing: The Patriots are unbeaten at home this season. Thought that was worth noting.)

Gut pick: Patriots

NFC

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals

Winning in the NFL is all about being a balanced team. The key is not to do one single thing great, but to do a lot of things very good. Every team you’ll face has different strengths and weaknesses which means you can’t just rely on one single trait, but you rather have to use all your options in order to adapt to your opponent.

Right now there might not be a more balanced team than Green Bay. They have a great QB who figured out that taking  20 sacks a game is not a particularly a good thing to do. (In related news: Their O-line finally learned how to block. Better late than never I guess even though they almost got their QB killed by letting him get pancaked to the point where he probably is scared to eat at IHOP now.) They can run the ball if they have to. (Just ask anybody who owned Ryan Grant in fantasy this season. He was Mr. Consistent.) They have the best run defense in the nation and the 5th ranked pass defense. They are just a well-balanced team.

Now as far as the Cards are concerned…uhm…yeah…not so much. They are pretty much the same team as last year: strong passing game, terrible running game, so-so defense.

They do one thing great and other than that they are a mediocre team that was able to hide it’s flaws throughout the regular season, mainly because they had a fairly easy schedule. If the Packers are able to contain the Cards high-flying offense (which will be less dangerous, because of a banged-up Boldin) then nothing should stand in the way of a cheerfull night for Cheesehead nation.

Gut pick: Packers

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Speaking of balanced teams. Holy **** the Cowboys look good. They are the 6th best passing team (Romo quietly has put together another Pro Bowl year) and possess the 7th best rushing offense. Their defense shreds up offensive lines like they are scrap paper (currently the 2nd best defense). They finally have a go-to receiver in Miles Austin and a three headed monster (we’ll dub it Barjonice) running the ball. Heck, even Roy Williams has reversed course.

Now the knock on Dallas the last couple of years was always that they can’t win when it counts most (also referred to as “december swoon” by countless sports radio hosts/TV personalities), but that New Orleans game apparently lifted that King Kong of the team’s collective back and it also roped every Cowboys fan back into “This could be the year” mode.

And maybe it is.

After all they crushed Philly (who had everything to play for including homefield advantage) just a few days ago.

Speaking of the Eagles: What the hell happened there?

I know we shouldn’t put too much stock into one game, but that was abysmal. McNabb overthrowing a wide open Jackson and smiling afterwards like it was a preseason game. (What the hell was up with that Donovan? Try do that in Philly and you’ll get pierced by debris flying from the stands.) Unforced errors that led to crucial turnovers and no defense at all. Prior to that game I had the Eagles going deep in January, but after that atrocious display? Not so much anymore.

(Plus, you know Andy Reid is due for a major clock managment screw up. It’ll happen you just watch.)

Gut pick: Cowboys

Alright, boys and girls that’ll do it for the first annual regular season wrap-up/ playoff preview. Remember this is the best time of the year so make it count. Pay attention to detail. Soak in the moment. Be prepared to witness history. And even if your team didn’t make it in, there is no need to sulk. I bet there is a team you can root against (I recommend the Colts. Then again I am biased.) and if not there is always gambling.

No matter how you do it, enjoy this year’s playoffs for you will see something special. Something you will tell your grandchildren about when you rock them back and forth on your lap someday. I know, because it happens every year. Just be alert and you will see it.

I promise.