The Fan's Perspective

DADADADAHH DADADADAHDAHDADADA DAAAA DAAAA DAAAA DADADADADADADADAAAA DAAAAAAA DAAAAA DUDUDU DUMMMMM

Even though I’m not very musical I think every football fan knows this melody (if you weren’t able to decode it here is the original: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4hcqVHKAQfY starting at about 0:16).

And I think every football fan also knows who is playing this coming Monday.

That’s right the Brady bunch is taking on Brees and company in a game that has been circled on my calender for quite some time know. So much to look forward to: the Pats trying to play spoiler and let the Saints’ dream of an undefeated season go up on in smoke like Charlie Weis’ hopes of coaching at Notre Dame next year, me then being able to trash-talk my friend Steven (a Saints fan, but will get to that later) into insanity and two of the premier quarterbacks of this decade colliding as well as two franchises who have had widely different paths not only this season but also this whole decade.

The Saints being the hot, new team that they are have found a lot of appreciation especially from the casual NFL fan. After all it’s always more fun to root for the team that hasn’t done it yet, hasn’t been there yet, etc. (Sure, does sound like I’m talking about the Superbowl now doesn’t it!? Tells you how much this game means to me.) The Pats on the other hand are easy to hate. I get it. They have been good for an entire decade. They have won multiple titles. They run up the score on opponents (By the way a dumb reason to hate somebody if you ask me. If you don’t want to get scored on then play some defense. In a reletated story those are the exact words that hundreds of fathers say to their teenage daughters every day.) They cheated. (Second dumbest reason to hate the Pats: Seriously who out there is naive enough to believe that the Pats were the only team out there doing that stuff??? It’s like the steroid conundrum in baseball: Everybody did it, but only the ones who get caught are being held responsible. Was it wrong to do it? Yes. Did it make any difference in the grand scheme of things? No. Glad we settled that.) Belichick isn’t exactly the most loveable guy (or at least gets portraited by the media that way, because his press conferences are about as exciting as a CSI: Miami rerun). But most importantly it’s because they are consistently good. That’s what success will do to you. People tend to get jealous prhhhetty quickly. Let me put it this way: Why do you think nobody (well nobody except the poor people of Detroit) hates the Lions? Because they suck that’s why. Why hate somebody who can’t hurt you? Why hate somebody who doesn’t have anything you want? I think you get my point. Now why does this matter you ask? This matters, because this game will be the ultimate struggle between good. vs evil. The loveable “underdog” (They are unbeaten but in the eyes of the general public the Saints are still the underdog. Weird world we’re living in, weird world.) vs. the evil empire. Obviously I’m a stormtrooper and you know what, I like it that way. It’s fun to be hated in sports, because hate means that other teams and frankly other fans fear you.

Anyway I thought long and hard about what to do for the preview of this game and then it came to me like divine afflatus (fancy word, huh!?): Who else would know the strengths and weaknesses of a team better than a fan of that team. That’s why I asked my buddy Steve (the Saints fan I mentioned earlier and also the same one who was at the casino with me ->http://www.thefansperspective.com/2009/09/22/burning-down-the-house-the-steve-part/) to write his analysis of the Saints and this juicy matchup. I had to edit some of it, but it’s essentially his thoughts and words. Of course not only the Saints will be analyzed in excruciating detail, but also the Pats. They will be dissected by the NR. 1 Pats fan I know. Yup, you guessed it. That would be me. But enough playing around already. Let’s get to work here.

First up: The Saints. (by Steven)

Words can’t express how excited I am for this Monday Night Football Game. It is probably going to be the best game this entire season (well beside the Superbowl of course where you’ll also see the Saints, I’m telling you right now). Even though I’m a Saints fan, I’ll try to do my little amateur-analysis as neutral as possible.

Let’s start with the Saints offense: I think we will see a much better game than the last couple ones we have seen from New Orleans. Against St. Louis, Carolina and Atlanta they had really rough starts extending over the whole first half. Especially Drew Brees didn’t exactly put on a clinic in the first half. But during the second half he always got back to normal and delivered the most precise passes you will ever see a quarterback make. If you saw the game against Tampa Bay it’s clear that he also can play a whole game being nearly perfect. Sure the Buccaneers are not exactly considered lightning in a bottle, but still Brees played calm and confident the whole game. If the Saints want to win this game it’s important that Brees keeps his cool and just plays like he always does: very good.

Of course there is more to the Saints passing game than just Brees, after all somebody has to catch his frozen ropes. So far all receivers seem to be healthy, so Brees will have many options to throw to, especially considering that every one of them has excellent hands. Here are some stats to back this claim up [TDs]: Colsten [6], Meachem [6], Shockey [3], Evans [2], Moore [1], Henderson [1], D.Thomas [1], Bush [1], Thomas [1]) . Clearly Colston is a big target for Brees but he was never a QB who will lock into one specific player (like the good old Brady-Moss/Brady-Welker connections). That’s why I expect to see the ball in the hands of every single Saints receivers ( Brees made 22 TD passes while hooking up with 9 different receivers [NFL leading]).

Now let’s take a look at the running game. First of I think we’re not going to see anything special. The Saints will dance with what brought them, so to speak, which means it’ll be the same old rotation and combination of three outstanding running backs. Hopefully Sean Payton will choose the right back for the right moment, because if he does that, I’m pretty sure that we’ll see a good running attack. We will see some of Reggie Bush’s sneaky and fast running skills, a heavy dose of the powerful runner that is Pierre Thomas (who is great at reading lanes and openings) and some north-south running from Mike Bell. As always I expect to see Bush and Thomas more in the first half, wearing down the defense by giving them a good look which is what the Saints running game is all about.

None of that matters of course if the big guys up front a) don’t protect Brees and b) don’t open up some holes for the runningback committee. So far though they have done a sensational job doing just that (in my opinion the Saints have THE best O-Line in all of football right now, then again I’m biased) This game should be a huge test for that unit, because the Patriots have a really good nosetackel in Wilfork , so maybe the Saints will a have a hard time running the ball in the first half. (Especially up the middle, which means they’ll have to run east and west.) But after watching this offensive line perform great all season long I am fairly confident that Wilfork is going to have a hard day. They will make him work and in effect he’ll become tired. That’s a big reason why I expect the big runs from Mike Bell to come in the second half, right over Wilfork’s ass. Pass protection wise I can simply say that I’m not really worried. Brees is in good hands.

Generally the Saints offense seems to be very healthy, but they have one big hole to fill (literally): Fullback Heath Evans (a former Patriot) is injured. He had done a great job setting his blocks at the right angle and at the perfect position to open up big holes which would then lead to even bigger gains. Hopefully his backup Kyle Eckel can step up and fill his shoes.

Now it’s time to look at the Saints defense. First of let me tell you that this is not the same kind of defense the Saints have trotted out the past couple of years. We all got used to the thought that the Saints would always be a team with “just” a good (more times than not “the best”) offense but this year everything changed. I have never seen a Saints defense like this one.

The D-Line, with Hargrove, Grant and Smith, clearly can bring some pressure to disrupt Brady’s rhythm. They probably aren’t the best defensive line in the NFL but we found out this season that New England doesn’t exactly have the best (I would even go so far as to call them bad) O-Line in the business. I expect to see a lot of run stops by these big fellas, especially because the combination of the Pats O-Line and their runningback Maroney isn’t working very well so far.

Now the New Orleans linebackers might not be the best in the league, but they still have given opponents some really good looks up to this point and with Jonathan Vilma as MLB they have a good set of eyes to watch the middle and somebody to support the run defense. Also linebacker Scott Fujita has done a very good job so far and has been able to stop the run a number of times with some good, solid and safe tackling.

Last but not least we’ll take a look at the Saints secondary witch was always their biggest handicap in the past, but not this year. With two new cornerbacks, Randall Gay (again a former Patriot) and Jabari Greer, one outstanding rookie corner in Malcolm Jenkins and a turnover machine in Darren Sharper the Saints Backfield has become way better than I would have ever expected. Unfortunately Greer is the second injured Saints player and he has been vital to the Saints defense. In his place Malcolm Jenkins will start who had a great first game in the NFL last week and even had his first NFL interception. Clearly New England’s two main threats, Randy Moss and Wes Welker, are going to cause some problems for the New Orleans defense and I’m sure we’ll see Sharper helping out on Randy Moss a lot, which will enable Brady to dump it off to Wes Welker for some short gains, but I’m counting on the Saints backfield to shut down this little weasel.

So all in all this is clearly a must-see game and probably a preview of Superbowl 44. The Saints are on fire and they really want the perfect season. This will be the Patriots’ second chance to end the dream of a team going undefeated. We will see two really good teams fight for every yard. There will be big catches by Moss and Colsten, runs after the catch by Welker and Shockey, big run stops by Wilfork and Hargrove and of course some big hits by Darren Sharper. So clearly a football experience that nobody should miss!!!

Alright so there you go the, the perspective of a Saints fan. Now it’s time to turn over the mic to your host, The Average Fan.

Now up: The Patriots.

Everybody knows the old saying every game counts, but some games just mean more than others. Personally I always measure the importance of a game on how giddy I am the week leading up to the game and also how concerend I am.

I can tell you I was both giddy and concerned this week.

There are a lot of reasons why I was concerend, but here are some of the most glaring ones:

-The Patriots cannot run the ball effectively. They cannot. Period. They haven’t been able to do it all year long and that’s going to have to change if they want to win this one. This might sound like I am some rusty 80-year-old offensive coordinator, but it’s true: The key to winning a game is to establish the run. Only good things come from running the ball: Your defense is able to get some rest. You take time off the clock. You wear down the opposing defense. It opens up the play action. And so and so forth.

We saw the Pats commiting to Maroney against the Jets last week and heck he did a pretty decent job, racking up 77 yards (alright maybe decent is an overstatement) and scoring twice. Now granted those numbers don’t blow you away, but it was enough. (Plus it came against a defense that has allowed fewer rushing yards than the Saints defense. Go figure.) All we need Maroney and Faulk to do is to make the defense respect the running game, so they can’t just sit back and drop everybody into coverage.

- Of course the Patriots inability to run the ball isn’t all Maroney’s fault (Not all, but mostly. Boy would we like to do that 2006 draft over. We could’ve taken DeAngelo Williams for crying out loud.). I’ve touched on this problem before in my “Patriot Problem” post (http://www.thefansperspective.com/2009/09/27/patriot-problem/) which is that the Pats O-Line isn’t the cream of the crop anymore. Now granted they have elevated their game significantly since I wrote those harsh words back in Week 2 after they looked atrocious against the Jets, but now injuries have decimated them again and we’re basically back to ground zero. I’m gonna go out on a limb here and say that having an O-Line that is more banged up than Courtney Love is going to be a problem.

- We can’t finish games anymore. This used to be the Patriots’ signature trait. As a Pats fan you always knew that when it comes down to the wire we’re all covered, because we have Brady and Belichick. Now? Not so much anymore. It’s more like the exact opposite now: We come out of the gates firing, but then we let teams hang around instead of putting the nail in the coffin as evidenced by the Pats losing to the Colts in heart-breaking fashion (By the way I thought Belichick did the right thing. I was 98% sure that if we had punted the ball and given it back to Manning he would’ve marched right down the field. The real problem was the Colts drive before that when they scored so quickly it made my head spin without even buring one timeout.) The Pats can’t be that careless late in games, especially not this Monday night when they’ll face a team that is always good for a late-game resurgence.

Now enough with the worrying. Here are some things that made me giddy all week long:

-Brady seems to be his old self again. He really does. His timing with his receivers is back. He doesn’t seem to favor that left knee anymore. He seems confident again. (By the way quick fun fact on Brady: He passed for more than 300 yards in everyone of his last five games. Drew Brees couldn’t even pass for 300 yards against the disgrace that is the Tampa Bay defense. How ’bout them apples?)

-The Patriots defense is currently ranked the second best in the league. They have allowed the second fewest points so far. (Second to Indy and we all know the kind of schedule they had so far.) They have allowed the fourth fewest yards and they are +12 in the takeaway/giveaway column (New Orleans is +10). So why wouldn’t you feel confident as a Pats fan that the Patriots defense can put the kabbash on the New Orleans high-powered offense. After all this is by far the best defense New Orleans has faced all year.

-Speaking of defense, if I asked you were you think the Saints defense ranks right now what would you say? At least top ten, right? Nope. They are currently ranked 13th, but you have to talk that with a chunk of salt considering that the last couple of teams they played have been football powerhouses like Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Carolina and earlier in the year Detroit. I think you know where I’m going with this. Yup, the notion that their defense is great is a misconception. I’m sorry, but if you allow St. Louis, Carolina and Detroit to score a combined 70 points than you’re not a great defense (at least not in my book). Sure, their defense is worlds better than it was the previous years, but it sure as heck isn’t anything to be afraid of. You can move the ball on them. (The one thing I’ll give them is that they are great at creating turnovers. I even picked them up in my fantasy league.)

(Right now we’re tied in the giddy vs. concerend departement, but not much longer, because here comes the tiebreaker.)

-The Patriots want this win. I know this is easy to say for me, but hear me out. After they lost to Indy they were crushed. I mean that was oen of the most gut-wrenching losses I’ve ever experienced as a fan and I know that it’s probably a million times worse for the players. Then to make matters worse they had to listen to all the media talk the whole week afterwards about how they blew the game and gave a sure win away. They played differently the next week against the Jets. They played with a fire and intensity I hadn’t seen from them in quite a while. (Belichick let them run up the score not because he’s a mean jerk, but because he needed his team to regain their confidence.) They want to reedem themselves this Monday. They already let one opportunity to defeat an unbeaten team slip. They won’t let it happen a second time. This is where we’ll find out if they are truly a Superbowl contender this year. It may sound strange, but this game means more to them than it does to the Saints (even though they’re gunning for 16-0). The Pats know how tiring it is to try to accomplish a perfect season. They have gone through just that only two years ago. It wears you down mentally and quite frankly it would be better for the Saints if they lost this game. They need to have that bitter taste of defeat back in their mouths or else they will probably fare the same way the Pats did in ’07 and lose when it matters most.

Anyway you slice it this will be one heck of a game and I think not even this mammoth preview can do this game justice. It’s a matchup of past vs. present of sorts. A possible changing of the guard. A passing of the torch if you will. It may just seem like another regular season game, but it’s not. It’s much more…

(One last note: Thanks to my buddy Steven for helping me with this preview. I really appreciate it.)

This entry was posted on Sunday, November 29th, 2009 at 5:09 pm and is filed under NFL. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.