Archive for October, 2009

‘Cause you had a bad weekend

Saturday, October 17th, 2009

Everbody knows that feeling. Sometimes there is a day or even worse a stretch of days when everything that possibly could go wrong goes terrible wrong. Murphy’s Law if you will.

Well, I just experienced such a phenomenon last weekend and since everbody loves lists (and also because lists are fairly easy to construct; yes I am lazy) I present to you 10 reasons why the last weekend sucked (for me):

(in chronological order)

  • I had to work Friday, which in itself is already a huge bummer, but then I even had to work half an hour longer, because my crazy superintendent thought I was loafing. She basically did everything short of actually calling me a bum. That little rant caught my off guard so much that first I was more surprised than mad. In retrospect I should have given her the patented start-looking-at-her-from-top-to-bottom-then-disdainfully-semi-laugh-at-her-move. My buddy Pascal has perfected this move to the point that he’s even better at it then a “MTV NEXT” candidate (which is saying something). Of course you always come up with these great comebacks after the fact. Oh well.
  • Friday night we went bowling with our football team. Now, I know what you’re thinking: “That sounds like fun how can that possibly suck!?” Well, my friends let me tell you why that sucked, because I suck at bowling that’s why. Bowling is one of those things that is not fun unless you are good at it (except you’re drunk or stoned, but booze and pot make nearly everything better so that doesn’t count) and when you get beat by people who have basically reconstructed shoulders and knees (Nope, I’m not talking about a seventy-year-old, I’m talking about my friend Steve who we tenderly call “Bubble Boy”.) it’s even less fun.
  • After putting up girl-like numbers at bowling we got drunk out of our minds to celebrate our buddy Martl’s 19th birthday (now granted THAT was fun). But of course it couldn’t be all fun and joy. No, not this weekend. While playing the bench game (great game if your drunk: People start to form benches behind other people who aren’t paying attention or talking to somebdoy else and then somebody comes along and pushes that person over the bench. It sounds complicated, but it’s not and it it is freakin’ hilarious. After a while everybody is really paranoid, because alliances have been formed and are then broken. Actually, it kind of reminds me of the “The Real World Road Rules Challenge”.) I somehow lost my headphones and I only realized it later so I had to walk all the way back and look for them in the dark. I was totally wasted so my vision was already blurred and of course I didn’t find them. Not that they were expensive or anything, but loosing stuff still sucks.
  • Saturday evening my friends and I went to the movies to watch “The Taking of Pelham 123″. Now if you haven’t already seen this movie then don’t waste your money on it unless you’re fond of seeing a seemingly fatter than usual Denzel Washington. It’s a generic hostage thriller with no twists and turns. You always know where the movie is going and how it’ll end. The only highlight of the movie was when our buddy Simon fell asleep around the 50 minute mark (which almost made up for the fact that we wasted 9 bucks on a boring movie, almost). He wasn’t just napping he was full asleep. It was great. In the words of Asher Roth: “I wish we taped it.”
  • After that awesome movie “experience” we went to THE most depressing dance/prom I have ever been to. For once I’m not exaggerating. I’m 90 percent sure that there where more parents than students. The band was terrible. There was no DJ. (Why not have the band in the big hall where all the couples dance and put a DJ in another area so everbody else can dance there? Is it really that hard to figure this out?) There were so few people that the barkeeper seemed surprised when we approached her for a drink. Oh yeah I forgot I’m working tonight. There were so few people that at around 12 a.m. the cleaning lady showed up ready to clean up the “mess”. The dance isn’t over yet and the cleaning lady shows up??? You gotta be kidding me!! I can only imagine how down I would’ve felt if that had been my prom. Needless to say that my buddies and I were cracking jokes the likes of “Let’s hope we still get in, it seems awfully crowded tonight” and “Let’s stick around a bit longer, because it’ll actually attract attention if we (three people) leave”. It was staggering. You had to be there to believe it.
  • Right when I thought it couldn’t get any worse along came Sunday. After a somewhat restful sleep I had a rude awakening when I realized that I had overslept and was an hour late for work. So I rushed to work leaving me no time for breakfast or at least a cup of coffee. Of course I had to work an hour longer and so I was even more exhausted than C.C. Sabbathia running back to the dugout on a hot summer day in Texas.  Sweaty and tired. You get the idea.
  • So I dragged my liveless corpse home and collapsed in fornt of the computer to check my fantasy teams. Now, since I had been late to work I didn’t have time to set my fantasy team’s lineups in the morning. You can imagine all the wishing and praying I did all day hoping that I hadn’t started anybody hurt or on a bye week. I was as anxious as Mel Gibson before a roadside breath test, to say the least, but then a quick sigh of relief passed through my body when I realized that I had started the right guys. Or so I thought, because like all weekend long, everything that could go wrong did go wrong and so I got shellacked by a buddy of mine in our football team’s league (stupid David Garrard screwed me over worse than a car salesman: Nono, these breaks work just fine, trust me. Dammit, they weren’t fine, David!!!I trusted you!!!) and nearly lost to another guy in my other league who started two players who were on byes. He played to players less than me and I only won by one point. One point!!!! That could have been the ultimate fantasy disaster: Loosing to somebdoy who has given up his team and doesn’t even set his lienups anymore, which by the way is just a disgrace. I mean if you can’t commit yourself to a fantasy league for three months then what can you commit yourself to?!?! For God’s sake who are these people!? Do they like actually have to think about accepting a free beer?? Is that too much commitment for them?!?! Let’s move on before I have to punch a wall or something. (By the way I think I set the record in that paragraph for most exclamation and question marks. Call the Guiness guys.)
  • After checking my lineups I scrambled to find information on the Red Sox – Angels game (Of course I could’t get a stream going, but on this day nothing could surprise me anymore.). They were up 2 in the 8th. Usually with that kind of lead that late I would’ve been fairly confident, but not with this Red Sox team and not on this particular day. (Bill Simmons brings it straight to the point in his podcast with JackO: They had no heart and no passion this season and at no point did you ever get the feeling that they had that special IT this year. All that’s left now for Red Sox fans is to root against the Yanks and maybe even try some voddoo to stop the evil empire in it’s tracks. Seems like it is 1999 all over again. Yikes!) And so the inevitable happened and my beloved Sox blew the game in the worst way possible. By giving up three crucial runs in the 9th at home. A terrible ending to a secretly terrible season.
  • When the Sox lost that’s when I should’ve known that the Pats-Broncos game wasn’t going to bode well for Pats fans. (Somehow the Boston teams feed of each other’s energy. I can’t quite explain it, but there is some connection between them.) It wasn’t really a game I expected the Pats to win, but still as a fan you always talk yourself into stuff. I felt pretty good at halftime, but there where some red flags. Brady overthrowing wide open guys (he has had this issue the whole season long, let’s hope it doesn’t become a bad habit) for example. I also felt like we should’ve been up by way more at that point in time. Not to go all NFL boradcaster on you, but it is still true: If you let a good team like the Broncos hang around for too long, they will come back and beat you. The Pats didn’t put the nail in the coffin and that’s why they ended up six feet under. I wasn’t all that mad about the loss, because after all the Broncos are a pretty darn good team, but what did concern me was Brady. He just doesn’t seem like the same since that injury. All Pats fans can do right now is hope and pray. Just hope and pray.
  • Finally when I thought I had endured every possible bad scenario my ODS formula basically went up in flames. It imploded like a house of cards. It busted into pieces like a handgrenade. It burst like Shavonne’s implants on “The Real World Road Rules Challenge: The Ruins”. (Second Ruins reference in this post. Translation: If you haven’t watched this show yet then do so right now at http://www.mtv.com/shows/rwrr_challenge/the_ruins/series.jhtml. I mean it. Right now. Alright fine you can finish reading this post, but after that go watch the show. You won’t be dissapointed. I guarantee.) It … alright you get the point. It didn’t do as well as expected. I went 9-5. Now, that’s not terrible, but it’s not good enough. The results should be better and they will be going forward. You have to understand that the formula is build on the premise that it gets better and especially more accurate with each week. (Plus, in my defense some of the games I picked wrong were either really fluky or really close.) At the end of the post I will give you the new (meaning adjusted based on the new numbers) ODS picks for this week’s games.

You probably can understand that I was really glad when the weekend was finally over and actually also happy I came out of it unharmed (not countig, of course, the emotional scars I suffered from the Pats and Sox’ losses), because with so many bad things happening at once you never know. I could’ve been hit by a coconut (granted a little unlike since palm trees are a rare phenomenon here, but still anything could’ve happened this weekend) or blindsided by a bowling ball (now that’s a risk factor right there). Fortunately none of that happened and so I’m poised to look towards blue skies and sunshine. In the words of Jimmy Cliff: I can see clearly now, the rain is gone…Gone are the dark clouds that had me blind… Here is the rainbow I’ve been prayin’ for…It’s gonna be a briiiight, bright, briiiight, bright sunshiny day…

Important note: In order to keep the ODS numbers comparable from week to week I have come up with a new wrinkle to the formula. From now on the strength of schedule numbers, meaning the combined opponent wins, will be divided by the times the formula was used in a season. In other words: Last week was the first week I used the formula that’s why I divided the combined opponent wins by 1, this week by 2 and so and so forth. To the picks (home teams in caps, ODS number in parentheses):

ATLANTA (5,789085914) over Chicago (5,144456482)

CINCINNATI (7,246906429) over Houston (3,453898305)

GREEN BAY (6,819754156) over Detroit (4,765220788)

JACKSONVILLE (3,972004361) over St. Louis (1,139282108)

Baltimore (10,08189118) over MINNESOTA (6,485231366)

NEW ORLEANS (12,24478485) over New York Giants (11,01611607)

NEW ENGLAND (11,20993789) over Tennessee (4,488552804)

NEW YORK JETS (6,755681818) over Buffalo (2,559653114)

PITTSBURGH (7,908619212) over Cleveland (2,660485825)

Philadelphia (5,401577016) over OAKLAND (1,542030079)

SEATTLE (8,976629712) over Arizona (5,332397004)

Carolina (2,440379308) over TAMPA BAY (2,414993647)

WASHINGTON (3,361298184) over Kansas City (2,969198119)

Denver (21,03062783) over SAN DIEGO (4,254865104)

Last week: 9-5

Easy Math

Saturday, October 10th, 2009

I don’t think I know a single person who likes math. Sure, it’s useful and necessary, but it also is annoying as hell.

There is only one thing I like about math: predictability.

By using math you can try to come up with formulas for all sorts of things like volumes, areas and so on and so forth. You can use math for a variety of branches and one, of course, is sport. People always want to be able to know and predict the outcome of events beforehand and it is no different in sports.

Sports and stats go hand in hand. They feed of each other like a good receiver does of a good quarterback. They enhance and improve each other and over the years we have been exposed to more and more stats which has led to more and more formulas. We have OBPS in baseball, Hollinger’s PER in basketball and third down conversion percentage in football. But so far nobody (at least to my knowledge) was able to capture the holy grail of sports formulas.

The formula to success.

We all know the Air Jordan commercial where they say that success is not calculable - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9ShUUzUDCo (In which they take a shoot at the NCAA’s ridiculous bowl system. C’mon NCAA be smart. You can make your product even better than it is right now by just implementing a playoff system. In case you don’t know it, those are the postseason modes used by EVERY professional sports league and they are the FAIREST way to determine who the league’s BEST team is. Sorry I had to scream there, but that kind of inside the box thinking just gets me really riled up. More on that topic another time.)

But what if it is!? What if success can be calculated!?

Of course I wouldn’t be your average fan if I hadn’t tried to come up with a lil somethin’ somethin’. So after a few days of contemplating and crunching the numbers (and some potatoe chips) in my secret sports lab I finally found it (doing the Dr. Evil laugh right now in case you wondered): The winning formula!

(For now we’ll concentrate on football, but I’ll try to find one for every major sport I care about, you just wait.)

I believe that the simplest solutions are often times the best and that is also what I tried to do with my winning formula. Keep it as simple as possible. So without further ado here it is:

First you take the team’s offensive yards and divide them by the team’s yards allowed. Then you take the team’s points scored and divided that number by the team’s points allowed. Now you have two factors. So then you multiply those two factors. You now have a new factor which you take and multiply by the combined wins of the teams your original team has played against so far. This will give you the final factor which we’ll call the ODS – factor. If you’re taking notes at home kids ODS stands for “OFFENSE divided by DEFENSE multiplied by STRENGTH of schedule”. So there and don’t forget: Before using the ODS – factor please consult your doctor. Side effects may include: high blood pleasure, dizziness, severe headaches and in some cases jubilation.

For all you guys who are thinking “what the f*** is he talking about, I didn’t get that at all” here is an easy to understand example: New Orleans Saints – [(1657 / 1181) x (144 / 66)] x (1+2+1+3) = 21,42837349

  • 1657 – offensive yards
  • 1181 – yards allowed
  • 144 – points scored
  • 66 – points allowed
  • (1+2+1+3) – combined opponent’s record

Alright, so now that we were able to get that out of our way let’s look at the first official ODS – power rankings (ODS-factor in parentheses):

  1. Denver Broncos (27,75487286) – Starting off with a mild shocker. I was really excited for this number, because I already thought before that they are a sneaky good team that nobody gives any credit to. One thing on the Denver stats: They allowed 26 points in four games so far. 26!!! Are you kidding me!?!? Their defense is for real. Really.
  2. New Orleans Saints (21,42837349) – No real shocker here. The number was so high I had to double check it to make sure I didn’t make a mistake. Translation: They are good. Scary good
  3. New England Patriots (14,42292719) – I was excited for that number for obvious reasons and the third spot is really great for the Pats, but let’s face it, there is a huge drop-off from Nr. 2 to Nr. 3. Oh well.
  4. New York Jets (12,50452414) – They just added Braylon Edwards so as long as Lebron doesn’t punch him out, their numbers should improve the coming weeks due to this newest addition.
  5. Pitsburgh Steelers (11,9589377) – Another mild surprise. I know they haven’t looked great so far, but don’t count the defending champs out just yet.
  6. New York Giants (11,54655544) – It seems like they should be higher up on this list, but the reality is that they haven’t had a real test yet and the numbers reflect that.
  7. Indianapolis Colts (11,48797844) – I was flabbergasted that they didn’t do better in my rankings. Manning is playing out of his mind right now. As your gambling adviser of choice I can only tell you this: Do NOT, I repeat, NOT bet against Manning this season. He will make you pay, literally. Right now there is no defense he couldn’t take apart with less than two minutes to go. He is so good it makes me sick. Remember when it used to be who is better Manning or Brady? Brady still has two more rings, but the way Peyton is playing this season he could single handidly carry his team to another one. Let’s move on before I have to throw up on the keyboard.
  8. Green Bay Packers (11,36625693) – Ok, so they didn’t get their revenge against Favre Vader, but at least they can find solace in the fact that they are a stout Nr. 8 in my rankings. By the way did you notice how close numbers 5.-8. are? Which tells us that those four teams are exactly the same.
  9. Baltimore Ravens (10,98414739) – Poor Cincy, just when they were gaining steam they’ll have to face a Ravens team that is coming off a gut-wrenching loss. Don’t be surprised to see actual foam coming out of Ray Lewis’ mouth. They’ll be breathing fire.
  10. San Francisco 49ers (10,73398884) – Ladies and Gentleman let me introduce to you the official feel-good surprise team of this 2009 NFL season. (Sure you could go with Denver too, but they are already in first place on this list so let’s give the 49ers a spot in the limelight.) They have a mean defense, a strong running game and a quarterback who seems like he’s competent, so hop on the bandwagon while there is still room. I’ll save you a seat.
  11. Dallas Cowboys (10,63517224) – If there ever was a point while crunching the numbers where I thought: “Wait a minute that can’t be right!” It was when doing the math on the Cowboys. Tony Romo seems like he is one more colossal collapse away from doing heroin. He folds under pressure like a button-down shirt. Their defense couldn’t stop a Pee Wee offense and if that weren’t enough already they apparently have two runningbacks who are made out of wax. Marion Barber and Felix Jones might be the Ruth and Gehrig of NFL injuries. Maybe I’m exaggerating a bit, but they sure seem to be on the injury report a lot. This might be the biggest test for my formula: The Boys have to look like the 11th best team this weekend. The success of my formula rests on Tony Romo’s shoulders. That thought alone makes me shiver.
  12. Miami Dolphins (9,913389404) – Oh brother, yet another test for my formula. Let’s move on quickly before I have to go and sniff some glue.
  13. Minnesota Vikings (9,460598504) – Could it be that Favre has changed? Was I just totally wrong on him from the get-go? Could it be that he is … decent? Naaaaaaah. Almost had you there didn’t I!? Favre is just a farce. Trust me. By now he has even won the most skeptical Vikes fan over and that is exactly what he always does. He’s like a broken down car that has just got a new chassis. It looks good from the outside, but as soon as you look under the hood you know you just got ripped off. Favre will break down in the playoffs and it’ll not be just a mere flat tire. It’ll be more like engine failure or a damage to the transmission. I’m telling you.
  14. Seattle Seahawks (8,886563193) – As if this list hadn’t raised enough eyebrows already we have the Hawks at Nr. 14. This should make at least one person happy (other than Senace Wallace). My dear friend Pete. A die-hard Seahawks fan and the only one I know. I had to see him devasted at times. Especially after Hasselbeck got injured to which he responded and I quote: “Now I’ll just have to go back to smoking pot again.” Which of course made us all crack up. All jokes aside though, it sure is crazy how they have been biten by the injury bug two seasons in a row (and biten badly I might say). They must have done something terrible in the past to get punished by the karma gods like that. But as always “What goes around comes around” so look for the Hawks to get more breaks as the season progresses. Speaking of progress let’s try to breeze on through from here on so you don’t have to attach yourself to an oxygen mask while reading this post.
  15. Cincinnati Bengals (8,157018179) – Ochocinco!!! Who would’ve thought that he would bounce back like that!? I know I didn’t, but I probably should have known after he came up with the whole “kiss the baby” shtick on “Hard Knocks”. The Bengals a possible contender this season? C’mon son!
  16. Chicago Bears (7,716684724) – Daaaaa Bears. They really need Matt Forte to have more games like he did last week against the Lions. Unfortunately they will only play the Lions D one more time this season, so he really has to step it up. Oh yeah and Matt if by some sort of miracle your reading this then pleeeeeeease play like you did last week every week. I traded for you in one of my fantasy leagues and I have the chance to knock of an unbeaten team this week so please bring your A-game. Pretty please.
  17. Philadelphia Eagles (7,640655923) – Number of games Westbrook missed so far this season due to injury: 1 out of 3. Number of people surprised by that: 0 out of 6.789 billion.
  18. Jacksonville Jaguars (7,465352805) – The Jags have a great stretch of games coming up: at Seattle, home for the Rams, Bye week, at Tennessee. So look for the kitties to show their claws and climb up the rankings.
  19. Detroit Lions (7,100003097) – Sure their defense is still horrendous. (They allowed a league worst 134 points so far.) Yes, their offense ain’t that special either only gaining 4.6 yards per play so far, but hey they’ve played some tough teams so far. They had to face the Saints and Vikings (both 4-0) and they had to compete against a 3-1 Bears team. Thus the “high” ranking.
  20. Arizona Cardinals (7,020220588) – Can I get a Superbowl hangover??  SUPERBOWL HANGOVER (crowd going crazy)!!!! Here we have a classic case of a team that overachieved one year and came back to earth the next season. They are not a good team that’s for sure, but you also have to take their ODS ranking with a tiny gramm of salt, because they are one of the few teams who had a Bye week already, plus they play in the NFC West so there is always a chance they could make the playoffs.
  21. San Diego Chargers (6,618679051) – LT’s fantasy points over four weeks: 10. That’s only 10 more than you and me have. Which reminds me of something: Who called? Huh, who did? WHO DID? That’s right I did (chest bumping the wall right now)!!! I said in my Fantasy Frenzy column ( which you can check out here if you haven’t read it yet: http://www.thefansperspective.com/2009/08/31/fantasy-frenzy/) that LT won’t be good. I had him in my sour part. I think I at least deserve an award or something for that. Everybody was like “He’ll bounce back this year blabla.” But I stood my ground. Damn, that feels good. I’m so fired up right now I think I have to go do some push-ups or something.
  22. Tennesse Titans (6,189571823) – Maybe they should change their name back to the Oilers, because they are getting torched week after week.
  23. Houston Texans (5,523625645) – Once again they were a highly touted team heading into the season and once again they have been disappointing so far. How come this keeps happening to them?
  24. Washington Redskins (4,871877173) – They are the team that ended the Lions’ record 18-game losing streak. Do I have to say more? I think not.
  25. Buffalo Bills (4,150566675) – I really think that Pats game killed their season. They could’ve had all the momentum of beating their division rival on national television, but instead all they got was a heart-breaking loss. Now they just get clobbered like a piece of dead meat and that is exactly what they are … dead meat.
  26. Cleveland Browns (3,780795864) – I momentarily forgot that trading away your best receiver for two low draft picks, a mediocre receiver (Chansi Stuckey) and a third string linebacker (Jason Trusnik) is the way to go if you want to win football games. It really slipped my mind for a second that that is what great teams do to become even better. Superb job Kokinis (Cleveland’s GM)! No, honestly you REALLY improved your chances of winning doing that trade. Anytime you can get 50 cents on the dollar you gotta pull the trigger.
  27. Kansas City Chiefs (3,716547305) – The only thing they have going for them is a cool stadium with a decent home field advantage. That’s it.
  28. Atlanta Falcons (3,418195013) – They fared so bad I had to double check the numbers. I thought they were at least semi-good. Guess not. A classic example for perception vs reality.
  29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3,226187225) – Need proof that firing your offensive coordinator just before the start of the season is not a particularly good move? Don’t look any further I present to you the 2009 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
  30. Oakland Raiders (2,283404769) – Chances of  hearing an anouncer utter the words “…AAAAAND JAMARCUS RUSSELL TO LOUIS MURPHY FOR A 69-YARD TOUCHDOWN THROW!!! RIGHT ON THE MONEY!!!” this season: 1 to 100000. Possibly higher.
  31. Carolina Panthers (2,0657923) – Take it from somebody who once bet 5 bucks on the 2009 Panthers to beat the Cowboys: They suck. Plain and simple. End of discussion (if there ever was one). I don’t wanna here it. Nope.
  32. St Louis Rams (1,242466389) – Just when you thought it couldn’t possibly get any worse you look at the Rams stats this season and suddenly you become really sad. If there is a team this season that could replicate the Lions’ epic 0-16 season last year it is this Rams team. I guess sometimes what you se IS what you get and in this case it’s an abysmal football team.

Alright, glad we got that over with. Now if you still haven’t had enough football talk then just keep on reading, because now I’ll put my formula to the ultimate test. I’ll try to predict the winners of week 5 based solely on their ODS-factors. (Home teams in caps). Here we go:

BALTIMORE over Cincinnati

Minnesota over ST. LOUIS

PHILADELPHIA over Tampa Bay

Washington over CAROLINA

Pittsburgh over DETROIT

NEW YORK GIANTS over Oakland

Dallas over KANSAS CITY

BUFFALO over Cleveland

SAN FRANCISCO over Atlanta

ARIZONA over Houston

SEATTLE over Jacksonville

DENVER over New England

Indianapolis over TENNESSEE

New York Jets over MIAMI

SAINTS over Chicago

Relax that last one was of course just a test to see if you didn’t pass out yet, because I know I’m about to. Anyway I’ll go and hyperventilate now to make sure I don’t black out from all that writing. I hope you enjoyed this newest post as much as I enjoyed writing it and I want to wish all you folks a great NFL sunday. And remember: Sometimes it’s just some simple math that does the trick.

Sunday Feast

Saturday, October 3rd, 2009

It’s week 4 and I have some good and some bad news for you, my loyal reader. I’m going to go the traditional route and tell you the bad one first: We already have 3 weeks of NFL action in the books. Sucks, doesn’t? (NFL season is just the best. Hands down. I can’t think of anything that gets a collective that is as diversified as NFL fans, more excited than football season (except for maybe Christmas, but c’mon it’s unfair if you have to go up against the Big Guy). As a matter of fact I challenge you, the reader, to come up with something that means more to a specific group of people than the NFL season means to sports fans (e-mails and comments are welcome). Can’t be done. Anyway moving on.

But cheer up, fellow football fanatics. Here is the good news. We’ve got a slate of tasty (I’m talking mouth-watering) games coming up this Sunday. The Fan’s perspective proudly presents 3  delicious games ( You want a reason why God loves football? Well, hang on, because here it is: Each one of these 3 games is played at a different time [1 p.m., 4 p.m. and a Monday Night game] which means even people like me who live in Austria, that have no Direct TV and have to watch the games on crappy live streams on the internet where they have to literally pray that the stream works, can catch all three of these blockbuster games live. So there you have it, the definitive proof that God does indeed love football.) to watch for this Sunday. Get the kids inside ’cause dinner is served!

(One more note on watching live football streams or for that matter any live streams on the internet before we move on to the games. It sure is something when you have 5 people crammed around a computer screen watching a live sports stream. You have guys not daring to move , because they fear that too sudden movement will make the stream, which most of the time is blurry and halting anyway, disappear for good err bad, whatever. Nobody is allowed to touch the mouse or even look at it askant once the stream “works”. It really is a hassle. But still I have to say I’m really glad they are there (try www.myp2p.eu for live sporting events ranging from football to badminton, no joke, I’m 80% sure they once showed a badminton game), because with out them I wouldn’t be able to follow my favorite teams at all and that would suck more than Jenna Jameson (I felt like we went too long without a porn joke. Gotta have them in there from time to time to spice things up a bit.). But now without further ado let’s look at the games. Yum-yum!)

Baltimore at New England

Oh, golly what a game! The 3-0 Ravens, who have emerged as this year’s AFC powerhouse so far and who might even be the best team in the whole league, visiting the so- far- less- than- impressive Pats. There are so many storylines in this game it makes my head spin. Possible passing of the torch concerning AFC supremacy (I hope no, but it sure could be). Belichick signing and then immediately cutting former Ravens linebacker Prescott Burgess (picture to the right) the week before they play them,

Could this man be the MVP of the game when not even playing in it!?

Could this man be the MVP of the game when not even playing in it!?

just like the Jets did with O’Connell, to maybe pick his brain about the Ravens defense (http://espn.go.com/boston/columns/blog?post=4512599&name=reiss). Can Brady finally find his 2007 form against a Ravens pass defense that is just 4 spots ahead of the Falcons defense and is 16 spots worse than last year (talk about missing a coordinator, sheesh!) ?

Speaking of that Ravens defense, it seems like everybody has gotten so used to always talking about the Ravens D that their surprisingly stellar offense has been flying under the radar so far this season. Sure, you have to take it (the Ravens are currently the 2nd best offense in the National Football League according to www.pro-football-reference.com) with a grain of salt since the Ravens haven’t exactly faced the cream of the crop so far this season (Kansas City, San Diego, Cleveland), but still they are slashing through opposing defenses like a scorching samurai sword through a chunk of margarine (Damn, I’m starting to get hungry!). They have a young and confident quarterback in Flacco as well as a young and up-and-coming Runningback in Ray Rice. Plus , let’s not forget the miraculous  resurrection of McGahee. Now combine those things with the fact that the Ravens have a pretty darn good O-line and what you get is the recipe for a successfull team: A top 10 defense, a competent QB and the ability to run the ball. (Kids, if you’re talking notes at home those are THE 3 most important features an NFL team has to have to succeed in this league.)

Hence, all signs are pointing to the Ravens and still I do believe that the Pats will come through in this game. It means more to them. I really do believe that. They are right now facing a crisis. Sure, they pulled out a win against Atlanta, but not a very convincing one. They still needed a lot of breaks in that game. They need to prove to us the fans and more importantly to themselves that they are a better team than what they have shown so far and they can only do so by beating an overwhelmingly good opponent like the Ravens. Furthermore, don’t forget that New England flourishes in the role of the underdog. We saw it in that first Superbowl against the Rams, they love it when nobody believes in them. Personally I think that the players are tired of being anticipated to win. Excpectations were too high for too long. Belichick is still at his best when he has to face adversity and this game will be about as testing as it gets.

As far as the Ravens are concerned, this could be at best a statement win to solidify there NR 1 status in the AFC and at worst just a bump in the road to what seems like a Superbowl season so far (you heard it here first folks, the Ravens are going to the Superbowl).

I guess, after reading those last two paragraphs it’ll come as no surprise that I’m picking the Pats in an upset over the Ravens. The official TAF (The Average Fan) Pick: Baltimore 24 – New England 27

New York at New Orleans

Just when you got done taking some sedatives to recover from a dramtic Pats-Ravens finish it’s time for a battle between the league’s top offense and the second best defense as two unbeaten heavyweights clash together in what should be an epic fight. This delicious late afternoon game features two teams who couldn’t be any more different. On the one side you have an offensive juggernaut with a polished and proven QB who seems like he’s the best in the business right now and on the other side you have the trash-talking, hard-nosed defense that flies around the field like a bunch of mad dogs and a rookie QB who hasn’t had to actually win a game yet. I hate to use the old cliché, but the Jets really are only asking him to “manage” the game and limit his mistakes and so far he has down a good job doing that.

But here’s the catch.

Time to shine, pretty boy! Show us what you're made of!

Time to shine, pretty boy! Show us what you're made of!

You can only go so long before your QB has to prove that he’s capable of stepping up when it matters most (after all there’s a reason why it’s the most prestigious position in football). This will be that kind of game. If the Jets want to win this baby then Sanchez will need to make plays, because I’m telling you, that Saints D ain’t a pushover either. They have vastly improved since last year (Iin 2008 they were ranked 26th in team defense. This year? 14th! Talk about making a leap.). That’s the first key to the game: Can Sanchez make plays when they need him to.

The second key will be the much talked about Jets D. Can they hold the Saints offense in check!? Because if not, then there is no way in hell the Jets win this game. They certainly won’t be able to outscore them.It’ll be interesting to see how well Brees will handle Rex “Blitzkrieg” Ryan’s defensive schemes. So far the Saints haven’t faced a defensive unit nearly as aggresive as this Jets D. They are basically blitzing on every down, which means Brees will have to get the ball out of his hands quicker than he is used to. In addition to that their Nr. 1 receiver Colston will be blanketed by the best cover CB in the game right now (In case you wondered. That’s Darrelle Revis. That guy is a stud. So far in 3 games this guy has held Andre Johnson, Randy Moss and Justin Gage (alright that last one might not be that impressive, I’ll give you that) to a combined total of 96 yards and 12 receptions!!! Think about that for a moment. That’s an average of 32 yards and 4 reception for the opponents BEST wide receiver. Needless to say that none of them caught a TD. This guy is the defintion of a shutdown corner.) This means Brees will have to spread the ball around even more and look for other options.

So in the end this game will come down to two things:

1. Can Sanchez be the kind of player he was groomed to be at USC, namely somebody who isn’t afraid to go all out when the spotlight shines the brightest.

2. How will the Saints offense handle the pressure of (basically) every down blitzes and rushes.

Personally I have to give the edge to the Saints in this game, because I think that A) playing in a dome is still a significant advantage for the home team (I can already see Sanchez getting rattled by a raucous Saints crowd and in effect messing up the snap count at least five times) and that B) the discrepancy between the teams’ offenses is much bigger than between the teams’ defenses. That’s why I will pick the Saints to win this game by a rather large margin. The official TAF Pick: New York 14 – New Orleans 31

Green Bay at Minnesota

Right when you thought it couldn’t possibly get any better there is one final gourmet meal waiting for you. Fresh out of the oven we have the Packers visiting the Vikes in an NFC North showdown that will be unmatched (Well, of course except for when they’ll meet again on 11/1/2009 at Lambeau. Anybody got goosebumps yet?). It’ll be the first time Brett “Should I stay or should I go!?” Favre will go up against his long time employer and this time it’ll even be in a Vikings Jersey. I wouldn’t be surprised if the earth would stop revolving around the sun on Monday. Seriously, in a million years could anybody have foreseen the way this whole thing evolved. If somebody had told you in 1998 that Favre would ever play in a uniform other than green and gold, you would have called him nuts. But if this same person would have said to you: “In 2009 Brett Favre will A) still be playing and B) will be wearing a Vikings jersey”, you would have dragged that person to a mental institution. Favre was a demi-god in Wisconsin.

It just doesn't look right.

It just doesn't look right.

Now?

Not so much.

(http://staff.onmilwaukee.com/sports/articles/burnfavre.html – See what I mean?).

Packers fans have made a complete 180 on Favre. Last year they were kind of dissapointed, but they blamed the Packers organization more than anything else for the whole mess and most importantly they still respected and to some degree loved Favre. But now that love has turned into utter hatred.

I can’t wrap my head around this. Why? Why would you do that if you’re Favre? You are beloved and adored by a whole fan base and generation of fans (and don’t forget a certain television announcer *cough cough* John Madden). You are basically a folk hero and you could probably get away with man slaughter in Wisoncsin. You’ll never get a speeding ticket in your whole life no matter how fast you cruise around Lake Michigan. You already have your ring so why not just retire. But nooooo. He had to come back and I guess it’s somewhat understandable if you’ve never done anything else you’re whole life , but still it’s just mind-boggling to me how he basically pissed away his whole reputation and pissed off one of the most loyal fan bases in all of sports. Anyway, enough Favre talk for now. We’ll get back to him later and this time you’ll like what I have to say about him even more, Packers fans. I promise.

As far as the actual game is concerned it all comes down to matchups. Fact is that the Packers don’t match up well against the Vikes. They don’t have a good run defense ( ranked 23rd), which should make it easy for AP to run wild (bad matchup NR 1). They’ll have a tough time passing on a Vikes pass D that is currently ranked 4th in the league and can create a lot of pressure with a very solid D-line (bad matchup NR 2). They are 23rd in third down conversion which is never a good sign and to make matters even worse Minny is 1st (!) in third downs allowed (bad matchup NR 3). (The Vikings have only allowed their opponents to convert 22.2% of their third downs. Now granted they have played Cleveland, Detroit and San Fran, but still that is pretty darn impressive if you ask me.)

Those are three bad matchups for Green Bay and I know Packers fans don’t want to hear this, but this game has rout written all over it. But there is one thing that the Packers have going for them and that is that they are playing against, you guessed it, Brett Favre (We’ve come full circle now in this preview. Kinda neat isn’t it!?) If there ever was a player who was capable of single-handedly ruining his teams chances of winning a game it’s Brett (with the exceptions of Russell and Delhomme, compared to them even Favre is still in Triple A). Consider this: In three games so far Brett Favre, a guy who has thrown a record setting 311 INTs over his whole career, has only thrown one pick. Only one. He is as due as a milk carton sitting in a college student’s refrigerator. I can easily see him throwing three picks in this game and you know one of those three will be returned for a momentum changing TD.

And how sweet would it be for Packers fans to finally get their revenge for all the pain and suffering that Favre has inflicted on them (on the other side Vikings fans would finally get to see the real Brett Favre)!? It would be about as sweet as a fresh bowl of ice cream and as we all know: Revenge is a dish best served cold.

The official TAF pick: Green Bay 28 – Minnesota 27