The Fan's Perspective

It’s summer. Girls competing for the unofficial award called “who has the shortest skirt”. Children and teenagers enjoying a well-deserved break from school that seems to get shorter but more intoxicating the older they get. Retirees fighting for the best tee times.

And men ?

They are preparing.

For what you ask!?

Right now men all over the U.S. and for that matter all over the world are preparing for the 2009 fantasy football season. You know it’s time to crunch the numbers,  join mock drafts and plow through kazillions of fantasy content on the world wide web when fantasy football magazines start to pop up in newsstands like zits on a teenager’s face working at McDonalds.

But what’s the success story of this most popular sports-related pastime?

Glad you asked! Here we go:

Hitting leadoff for the triumph of fantasy football: self-affirmation. Basically, every fantasy football owner thinks of himself as the best one out there and feels a need to confirm that. We want to prove to ourself and most importantly to others around us, that we could succeed as a owner/GM/coach of a real team if given the chance. We think we know everything better. We try to outwit our opponent which is why we look for sleepers (which we’ll get to later, I promise) and try to get every possible advantage. Then when we finally reach our goal, which in this case is winning the championship, we feel validated. In a way it’s the same feeling you get when your favorite sports team wins a championship only on a smaller scale and with a little twist, because you were directly responsible for the triumph.

Next batter-up: pride. Let’s face it, fantasy football is still mainly a male domain. I guess women are just too smart to waste hours and hours on a fake game that is all about the numbers ( instead they waste hours on shopping clothes or analyzing their weight problem even if there is none at hand, so I guess it’s a draw after all). Anyway, men like to feel proud (not saying women don’t like to be proud, but I think they express it differently) and by playing fantasy football men can display their pride to their friends, co-workers, etc.. Fantasy football is all about trash talking, showing off and looking back on your accomplishments, trades and wins and, well, quite frankly, feeling proud ( some hardcore analysis, I know).

Batting third (or in Red Sox terms:  in the spot that used to have Big Papi’s name on it – alright enough self-torturing for one post): competitivness.

Question: What’s one big reason men love sport so much?

Answer: We usually are competitive as hell.

This also applies to fantasy football. We like to compete. It’s in our nature. It’s our inner drive to succeed and do so against the best. We like to test our limits and we like,  no, we love to win. Now if you combine a sport that is beloved and watched by nearly every American with a game that embraces and exposes our competitive nature, it’s like the perfect storm.

And finally hitting clean-up for the success story of fantasy football: you guessed it – our love for football. I can guarantee you that every fantasy football player is also a football fan. The great thing about it is, that you are way more engaged in the season, because now you are not only interested in your favorite team or in the handful of contenders, but also in the games in which your players perform. As a matter of fact, I am convinced that anybody who watches a Lions-Rams games and isn’t one of the few Lions/Rams fans left is monitoring the game for fantasy purposes. I know, I know that’s nothing new, but I think people tend to underestimate the impact fantasy football has on the NFL and especially on the TV ratings.

Now that we unvealed the four pillars of fantasy football we can move on to the juicy part. Time for my first annual fantasy football segment called “sweet’n’sour” (in case you weren’t able to guess it – and God knows I hope you were able to – this is the part where I list the fantasy palyers I love/hate for the upcoming season). I will not list obvious players, but rather try to look at players who are generally underrated or have sleeper potential (sweet) and those who are overrated or have “bust” written all over them (sour). Alright, heeeeeeeeere we go!

Sweet (in no particular order, stats are courtesy to pro-football-reference.com)

Chris Johnson (Tenesse Titans, RB) – I loooooove me some Johnson. Crap, that came out weird. But all shenanigans aside, I really like him this season. After his strong rookie season ( strong is an understatement: he averaged 4.9 rushing yards per attempt which is more than fanatsy studs like Michael Turner, Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte) he is ready for an even bigger performance in 2009, especially if you consider that most RBs make a big leap from their rookie to their sophomore year. Call me crazy, but I am not very confident in LenDale White’s diet strategies. Loosing wheight by cutting down on tequila!? Never heard that one before. If anything you’ll loose your lunch and therefore weight by drinking tequila. (Little sidenote: Personally I rank tequila among the top three “most difficult to drink substances” (also called MDTDS), right behind nitric acid and before lighter fluid. Let’s just say I hate tequila.) Anyway, I think Johnson will get significantly more carries than last year and if White doesn’t join weight watchers as soon as possible, Johnson might even get more goalline carries too.

Pierre Thomas (New Orleans Saints, RB) – Now here is a guy who gets goalline carries. Even though Bush is in front of him in the depth chart, he still won’t be the one scoring in the Red Zone. Plus, Bush isn’t really the most durable player after going out with knee injuries in 2008 and 2007 (missed 6 and 4 games respectively). By the way, how long until we can safely say that maybe the Texans’ choice to take Williams over Bush wasn’t so ludicrous after all. I would say a knee injury this year and we’re there (every Saints fan just threw up in their mouth). As always Mr. Brees will open up the field with his airstrikes, which should open up gaps and lanes for Thomas. He is currently ranked 29th in espn.com’s fanatsy rankings, which means you should be able to snag him in the third round as a solid Nr. 2 RB with a lot of upside. One last tidbit: He is in a contract year. Repeat after me: C-O-N-T-R-A-C-T   Y-E-A-R !!!

Matt Schaub (Houston Texans, QB) – Usually not a name that makes you fall off the edge of your seat, but this year could be different. He already delivered a sneaky good season last year when he was fourth in percentage of passes completed with 66.1 % and was 18th in passing yards. He has a great target in Andre Johnson and the Texans were fourth in passing yards last year. In addition to that their Defense isn’t that great (they were 27th in Team Defense last year) even though they added DE Antonio Smith, which will mean they’ll be playing from behind a lot (Texans fans trying not to nod). They were 6th in allowed points in 2008, so look out for the Schaubster to sling it around late in games.

Joey Galloway (New England Patriots, WR) – You knew it was coming – the homerism (just made that word up)! All jokes aside, I really see sleeper potential here, think about it: He will be catching passes or should I say darts from the premier QB of the league (there it is again), Randy Moss will draw the safety’s attention on the opposite side of the field and you know Yoda Belichick will cook something up for Mr. Galloway (bring him in slowly with some screens and slants until he gets comfortable and so on and so forth). For all I know I wouldn’t mind taking a late-round flyer on G.A. Joe.

Vincent Jackson (San Diego Chargers, WR) – (cue up John Madden’s voice) “Now here we have a guy who when having the ball thrown to him catches it, which makes him a good receiver.” (cue up my voice) “You’re damn right he is good, John!” In fact, he was so good last year that he had more receiving yards than T.O., Randy Moss, Anquan Boldin, Donald Driver and Tony Gonzalez. Pretty elite group, eh!? Furthermore, he was ranked 11th overall in receiving yards and 19th overall in receiving TDs (he had more TDs than Reggie Wayne and Steve Smith). If you then factor in that Rivers is primed for a great 2009 campaign and that San Diego gets to play these three crummy Defenses – Broncos, Raiders, Chiefs – twice, you have to like VJ, who is currently ranked 18th in espn.com’s WR rankings. In the words of Kazachstan’s Nr. 1 Journalist: “It’s a very niiiice!!!”

Visanthe Shiancoe (Minnesota Vikings, TE) – Let me throw this at you: Only three TEs had more TDs than the V-Man in 2008. Now let me take you one step further: Last year he received passes from Tavaris “I’ll close my eyes and throw it out of bounce” Jackson. This year? Brett “I’ll close my eyes, bomb it 50 yards down the field and pray that my guy comes down with it” Favre (at least as long as Favre’s arthritis doesn’t bother his throwing hand). Not a huge upgrade, but an upgrade nevertheless. Plus, other than Bernard Berrian there isn’t really a red zone target for the old man. The only question that remains is “Will Nr 4. stay healthy?”, because if not, it’s back to either Jackson (Yikes!) or Rosenfels (Ouch!). In that case Shiancoe still won’t lose total fantasy relevance, because they’ll just throw those little checkdowns to him. See, that wasn’t that hard was it!?

Dolphins D/ST – It pains me to say it, beacuase I hate their guts, but the Dolphins were a sound defensive unit last year. Every time the Pats played them I got worried and not just because of their freaky wildcat formation (which by the way won’t be working so good this year, because teams are catching on fast to stuff like that), but also because they are good in forcing turnovers. In fact, they were ranked 12th in fumble recoveries and 8th in passes intercepted. In addition to that they were ranked 15th in total yards allowed. O.K. so their pass defense is not that great, I’ll give you that, but if you like stacking up on offensive weapons and don’t want to draft one of the big guns (Steelers, Vikings, Titans, etc), then the Dolphins are the way to go.

Your teeth hurting yet from all that eye candy? Then I got some sour grapes to easy your pain.

Sour (in no particular order, stats are courtesy to pro-football-reference.com)

Terrell Owens (Buffalo Bills, WR) – I don’t see it. I just don’t see it. Please help me with this one. A 35-year-old WR, who we know likes to be in the spotlight, goes to a Bills Team that has two rookies in there starting offensive line and will play three very good Defenses (N.E. and Miami were ranked 8th and 9th in overall Defense last year) twice a year.In addition to that Buffallo ain’t exactly Dallas, which means the cold weather could very well affect his numbers. He already had a ton of dropped passes last year (10 to be exact, which puts him 4th behind Braylon Edwards, Dwayne Bowe and Brandon Marshall), when a good QB tossed him the ball ( no offence, Trent, or should I say no offense…that’s the kind of high caliber humor you were waiting for am I right?). Maybe I can’t be objective on him, because of all the off-the-field stuff, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable drafting him (especially not as the 10th WR, where he is currently ranked on espn.com right now). Moving on.

Brian Westbrook (Philadelphia Eagles, RB) – Boy oh boy has he come a long way. After his ADP (average draft position for all you non-nerds out there) was third last year, he is projected to go 21st this year. Now, I have to admit I loved him last year, even took him in the first round with the second pick, but he put up double-digit fantasy points only seven times last season, which almost killed my season (won it anyway with a little help from MJD, yeah baby!). Plus let’s face it, Westbrook isn’t the workhorse any more he used to be. He is no longer invincible and you saw that last year when a knee injury made him miss significant time and forced him to undergo several surgeries. I am not saying don’t pick him up if he falls to you in the 4th round or so, but don’t draft him in the second round just don’t…

Matt Cassel (Kansas City Chiefs, QB) – Before I get bombarded with hate mail from angry fellow Pats fans (which quiet frankly won’t happen, because this blog has only been existing for roughly a month and has to compete with millions of similar blogs and websites, but we’ll get there, I hope), I want you to hear me out. Look, I love what Cassel did last year just like you and actually every Pats fan should give a hand to Matt for at least making the Pats competitive last year after our season seemed about as wrecked as Nicole Richie’s body, but the thing is that he is in a new system now (nothing to underestimate!), with new WR (no Wes Welker or Randy Moss) and most importantly there is no Belichick (did I already mention I love the guy) or McDaniels calling plays. Now granted he was ranked 8th overall in passing yards last year and 11th in passing TDs, but I’m telling you, he doesn’t have the same weapons this time around, especially now that Tony Gonzalez is gone and don’t tell me Amani Toomer is going to be the answer. Just trust me, stay away from this one, even when he is ranked 11th among fanatsy QBs on espn.com.

LaDainian Tomlinson (San Diego Chargers, RB) – It feels off-putting merely writing his name in this particular part of the column, but the unanimous first-round pick from 2007 and last year gives me no choice. LT averaged only3.8 yards per attempt last year (42nd among RBs), put up his lowest rushing yards total ever and scored the fewest TDs since his rookie season. His turf toe affected him severely last year and opened the door for Darren Sproles, who will be breathing down… err… up his neck this year. Look, I am not saying LT is all done, but I sure as heck wouldn’t take him in the first round (he is currently ranked 7th overall on espn.com). Tomlinson just turned 30 and we all know RBs have a extremely short shelf life. Maybe he still has something left in the tank, but I doubt it (on the other hand if he would fall to me in let’s say the second or even third round I’d grab him so quickly it would make your head spin, and yes I am sitting comfortably on this fence).

Giants D/ST – Let me throw this at you: 8 and 6. No, those are not the number of times Eli and Paris (respectively) have regretted that this picture was taken. Those numbers must be higher( at least on Eli’s part I’d hope). Actually those are the number of times the Giants defense will face either a top 10 passing offense (8x) from last year or a top 10 rushing offense (6x) according to last year’s stats. Now if you further consider that the Giants defensive unit was ranked 8th against the pass and 9th against the run last year, that doesn’t bode well. They are currently ranked the 2nd best D/ST on espn.com which in my opinion makes them grossly overrated especially if you keep in mind that there were 9 defensive units last year that scored more fantasy points then the Giants D.

Brandon Marshall (Denver Broncos, WR) – Lemme put it this way:  To go from catching missles from Jay Cutler to trying to cope with Kyle Orton’s wabbly “passes” is like to go from driving a Lamborghini to riding a bike. You don’t feel as comfortable, you’re bummed out and you don’t have the same range (in fact the number of alcohol-related deaths in Colorado is probably through the roof right now).It’s a huge downgrade, which affects Marshall significantly. Sure, Brandon is still going to put up some great stats, but by all means don’t expect him to lead your team to fantasy nirvana with gaudy numbers like last year. So draft him accordingly.

But enough with the naysaying already. Let’s end this piece of fantasy delight on a good note, namely with some – drum roll please – BONUS CONTENT!!! Here are some short, random thoughts on some of the fantasy- football- related stuff:

Mock Drafts – Is there a higher form of geekiness than mock drafts!? I say no. Think about it, you are doing fake preparation or practice for a fake game and 99 % of the time this training is a waste of time anyway, because in the end it almost never shakes out the way you planned it. It doesn’t get any nerdier than mock drafts. Probably not even Fogell would do mock drafts.

Team names – They are the salt’n'pepper of the fantasy football meal. For some players coming up with an inventive and funny name is often times even more important than who they’ll land on their team. Here are some real beauties:

• Go Favre yourself – made me chuckle when I saw it for the first time and proves that I’m not the only one who is sick of the old man
• Romo-sexual – chose this one for my team – the A-town Romo-sexuals
• Two Mannings One cup – a definite first-ballot hall of famer
• Victorious Secret – rolls off the tongue naturally and is pretty clever
• Favre Dollar Footlong – Do you want that with a fork in it?
• Marks DIRTY Sanchez – now that one came on a silver platter
• Crab on my tree – love this one, good thing Disney is not my boss (am I right ESPN crew? …Whoops my bad!)
• Strokin’ my Ditka – you can tell that we’re getting into murky waters here
• one last one: Breaston my face – just classic, I never want to grow up

Fantasy experts – Don’t get my wrong, I enjoy Matthew Berry and the fantasy focus podcasts like everybody else does, but fantasy expert as a job, really!? I mean isn’t a fantasy expert like a weatherman? They both make predictions that may or may not come true and they can basically tell you whatever they want. If you get to make predictions on essentially almost every relevant player in the NFL, you’ll get some of those predictions right and some of them wrong. So wouldn’t that mean anybody who has played fantasy football for a few years could be an “expert”. Then again I’m probably just jealous, because that seems to be the greatest job in the world (only downside: chances are it doesn’t impress women very much if you tell them you do fantasy sports for a living)

Anyway, time to wrap this baby up. Let’s hope for a grand fantasy season (as well as NFL season, go Pats!!!) and remember, preparation is all well and good, but don’t try to overthink stuff, don’t try to get cute (for instance don’t draft Vincent Jackson in front of Brandon Marshall just because I like the first and I’m down on the latter, it’s all relative) and most importantly trust your instincts, because most of the time that gut feeling is spot-on. Furthermore, don’t forget that fantasy football isn’t everything, there is nothing that could ever replace the joy you get out of following or playing real sports. So ultimately, it’s all about putting things into perspective…

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Tags: fantasy football, Fantasy Sports, football

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